As President Donald Trump overhauls U.S. policy in Africa — slashing foreign aid programs and paring back assistance for allied forces in the region — al-Shabab militants are on the march in Somalia.
One of al-Qaeda’s best-funded and most lethal global affiliates, al-Shabab has retaken important towns from Somali forces over the past three months. Its fighters previously launched an assault on a U.S. airfield in Kenya and plotted attacks on the U.S. mainland.
Under the second Trump administration, it’s unclear whether Washington believes that the battle against the group should still be a priority — or if the Somali government, long racked by corruption, is capable of leading the fight.
“The Trump administration is apparently not convinced that al-Shabab represents a direct threat to U.S. interests,” said Matt Bryden, founder of Sahan, a Nairobi-based think tank. But further gains by the group “would have far-reaching implications for U.S. policy in Africa and much of the Middle East,” he said.
During his first term, Trump ordered the U.S. military to leave Somalia and “commute to work” from neighboring countries, a strategy soldiers said was time-consuming and dangerous. Although U.S. troops are back, Washington has withdrawn support for Somali special forces and is reconsidering plans to deploy hundreds of American soldiers across the country. Most foreign trainers pulled out after cuts to security assistance, and morale among local troops is said to be waning. All the while, tensions between U.S. officials and Somali authorities appear to be nearing a boil.
“I sat down with people from the White House, and they asked: ‘What if we just let [Somalia] burn? Can we contain it?’” said a former senior State Department official. “I said ‘No!’”
Former U.S. officials interviewed for this report served under multiple presidents, including Trump, and spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of professional retaliation or out of respect for ongoing policy deliberations. Current officials, diplomats and security contractors spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.
A White House official acknowledged growing frustration with the Somali government: “We are concerned about President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s prioritization of internal politics over counterterrorism efforts, particularly in light of the growing threat from al-Shabab,” the official told The Washington Post. The State Department press office said the United States “will continue to work closely with Somali and African Union forces.”
Somalia’s fractious Mogadishu-based government, propped up by U.S. support and an extensive African Union peacekeeping mission, is increasingly turning to Turkey to help repel the long-running Islamist insurgency — a case study in how America’s diminished focus on Africa is compounding regional security challenges and scrambling global power dynamics.
The burgeoning relationship between Ankara and Mogadishu includes a newly disclosed oil exploration deal, recent deliveries of powerful Turkish drones and the arrival last month of hundreds of troops in the Somali capital — deepening Turkey’s foothold in the Horn of Africa while giving Somalia another security partner to hedge against American unpredictability.
Turkish officials did not respond to requests for comment.
The former senior State Department official said U.S. disengagement could fuel al-Shabab’s expansion into neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia and allow the Somali fighters to strengthen fledgling relations with Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Two recent meetings between al-Shabab and the Houthis were documented by U.N. sanctions experts; the last involved the Houthis sending an explosives expert to Jilib, al-Shabab’s de facto capital, said the former State Department official, citing U.S. intelligence.
Any further American pullback, according to officials and diplomats, could exacerbate Somalia’s political divisions and imperil efforts to contain one of the continent’s most acute security threats.
How U.S. cuts in Somalia could imperil the fight against al-Shabab
‘Our lead partner’
Since taking office in 2022, President Mohamud has frustrated his Western allies by insisting on a transition to one-person, one-vote elections — a strategy frequently used by Somali politicians to delay polls. He has also alienated some of the country’s most effective regional administrations by forcing through constitutional amendments aimed at expanding the powers of the presidency.
Electoral cycles in Somalia routinely interfere with operations against al-Shabab, which is skilled at exploiting clan divisions. In the past, U.S. leadership helped smooth over such clashes.
“Things always start off great with a new president, and then clan politics makes it all fall apart,” said former U.S. ambassador Larry Andre, who recalls coordinating outfits with the beleaguered prime minister in 2022 during a joint news conference. Their matching sky-blue running suits signaled they were united, Andre said, after political rivalries sparked deadly clan battles.
Hussein Sheikh Ali, Somalia’s national security adviser, said the U.S. helps organize Somalia’s seven core security partners, which include Britain, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the African Union. All are against al-Shabab, Ali said, but sometimes have competing agendas.
The African Union, traditionally the most powerful bulwark against the militants, has been drawing down its troops for years. AU soldiers haven’t been paid since January, and the force is $96 million in arrears.
“On areas of counterterrorism [the Americans] are our lead partner,” Ali said. Only this year, after coordination with U.S. officials and under the watch of a new director general of immigration, did Somalia begin using Interpol watch list data and sharing the details of passengers boarding international flights.
Now, amid a new round of political turmoil, the U.S.-Somalia relationship seems increasingly precarious.
American officials have “repeatedly urged” Mohamud “to refocus on security cooperation and regional inclusion, and are disappointed by the lack of progress,” the White House official told The Post. His emphasis on centralizing power “is hindering progress on counterterrorism,” the official added, “and we believe a shift in priorities is essential to address the escalating threat.”
Since February, insurgents have taken back dozens of villages, including the strategic town of Adan Yabaal, and regained the ability to operate in nearly a third of the territory they lost to federal forces in 2022, according to Aldebaran, a risk consultancy company. They have mortared Mogadishu’s international airport, and in March, they bombed the president’s motorcade. He survived, but four others were killed.
Al-Shabab’s Ramadan offensive in March coincided with reduced U.S. support for Somali special forces — a 2,500-strong unit known as the Danab brigade — which has traditionally led the fight against al-Shabab.
A U.S. government audit last year found that Danab had padded food and fuel requisitions. Food and fuel support stopped in April 2024 and March 2025, respectively; in February, the U.S. stopped paying stipends that boosted Danab members’ salaries to $400 per month — double what regular Somali soldiers receive.
It’s unclear whether the termination of the stipends was linked to the graft allegations or to the wider freeze on foreign assistance programs under Trump, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said will reduce government bloat and allow the administration to focus on domestic priorities.
Somalia’s Danab brigade soldiers, seen here in 2022, have been a somewhat effective — and U.S.-supported — way to keep al-Shabab at bay, but cuts to foreign aid make their positions less certain. (Malin Fezehai/For The Washington Post)