Trump or Kim: who is more strategic?Two unpredictable leaders seek to find common ground ahead of Singapore summit

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump / Graphic by Cho Sang-wonIt has become a tricky strategy game between the two most unpredictable leaders in the world.

Ahead of the upcoming Singapore summit possibly on June 12, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are playing their own games to look less eager to secure negotiation leverage.

Both parties have flip-flopped on their stance toward the historic meeting over the past week but it seems that they will highly likely meet in Singapore as scheduled.

In a dramatic diplomatic turn, Trump called off next month’s summit, May 24, citing Pyongyang’s open hostility as the key reason for the cancellation.

However, after Pyongyang showed a submissive attitude following Trump’s cancellation letter, he left open the possibility of the Singapore summit.

And after Kim reiterated his willingness to meet Trump to discuss denuclearization in a surprise meeting with President Moon Jae-in, Saturday, Trump said that the date and location for talks with Kim “has not changed.”

These dramatic tit-for-tat moves indicate that they have different goals _ complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by North Korea for Trump, and a security guarantee and economic benefits for Kim _ but have similar tactics, namely “strategic unpredictability.”

“Uncertainty is the hallmark of President Trump’s deal making style,” said the Henry Kissinger Professor for Governance and International Security at Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms University in Bonn, Germany.

“North Korea’s Kim is also a master at bluster and uncertainty adorning his response to Trump’s cancellation as a tremendous setback for peace.”

In order to get a hint at what the impending summit could be about and will look like, it will be useful to analyze the two leaders’ strategies based on what has been happening over the past week.

What’ is Kim up to?

Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, said that Kim seems to have decided to pursue denuclearization in principle, but hardliners in the North have been trying to persuade him not to follow Trump’s CVID demand.

He believes that to threaten a nuclear showdown with the U.S. and to use nasty language when referring to Vice President Mike Pence obviously convinced Trump that North Korea was having second thoughts about the June 12 summit.

“It appears that these provocative acts, apparently approved by Kim Jung-un, were a manifestation of hardliners in Pyongyang,” DeTrani told The Korea Times.

He thinks that the hardliners got to Kim and tried to convince him not to commit to CVID, in return for security assurances, economic development aid and a path to normal relations with the U.S.

“Personally, I believe that Kim, after meetings with President Moon and two meetings with Secretary Mike Pompeo had made the strategic decision to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in return for these valuable deliverables, all in an effort to improve North Korea’s ailing economy and to provide a better life for the people in North Korea,” he said.

William Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, thinks that Kim wants the summit but doesn’t want to appear desperate.

“So, he is making things a little difficult, forcing everyone to lower expectations of a breakthrough on nuclear dismantlement,” he said.

“But he can’t afford being seen as the one who pulls out, allowing the U.S. to return to maximum pressure.”

From Brown’s perspective, the reason Kim wants the summit is economics.

He pointed out that just within the last month, Kim has greatly increased domestic expectations, saying the party and the government will exert total focus on the economy, and that people’s lives will get better.

He said that for Kim and his regime, meeting with Trump is a far better choice than relying on Xi Jinping at this moment.

“If the summit doesn’t go well, he can blame a continued weak economy on U.S. hostility. And if it goes well, at least there is a hope for economic growth,” he said.

Tara O, an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum and author of “The Collapse of North Korea,” said, “Kim Jong-un was playing by his play book of complaining and demanding prior to the summit to maximize his gains, but it didn’t work this time, at least not with the U.S.”

“With South Korea, it seems to be working because the Moon administration pulled the ROK Air Force out of the Max Thunder exercise and is looking into the feasibility of sending back the restaurant worker defectors to North Korea.”

Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies, thinks that Kim Jong-un may have overplayed his hand.

“Kim must have thought Trump wanted a summit so badly that he could just push and push and Trump would make whatever concessions Kim demanded just to keep the summit alive. But Kim went too far,” he said.

Trump’s strategy

Many experts see Trump’s “yes” then “no” then “yes” approach not as inconsistency but as a negotiation strategy to get the upper hand in negotiations.

“I wouldn’t call it a flip-flop. It is part of negotiations, which have already begun. Having a summit is not the ultimate goal,” O of the Pacific Forum said.

“We have to keep in mind that the goal is to denuclearize North Korea, not the Korean Peninsula, which has a totally different meaning. Korean Peninsula means South Korea, which doesn’t have nuclear weapons.”

Brown, a former U.S. intelligence officer, said that Trump wants the summit to occur but, like Kim, does not want to seem overly eager.

“Trump admitted to game playing on both sides. As with Kim, he needs to lower expectations of a breakthrough, meeting the impossibly high bar now being set by skeptics, on both the right and the left, in Washington,” he said.

He said that expectations have been lowered and a more modest agenda may now be constructed.

“For Kim this will need to show a path toward normalization of relations, and most importantly, normalization of trade relations and an eventual elimination of sanctions,” he said.

“For Trump this will need to include a path toward denuclearization and progress in other areas.”

King, a New York-based East Asia specialist, said he felt that Trump truly let the summit go emotionally when he sent Kim his cancelation letter.

“That’s why it may end up bringing Kim back to the table, as the emotion was so real. I thus don’t think it was a negotiating ploy by Trump at all,” he said.

“I think Trump’s letter, and his remarks, conveyed his true sense of disappointment. It’s not an ideal way to do business but whatever Trump’s actual intention, Pyongyang’s softer tone today suggests it may end up being effective.
By Kim Jae-kyoung

Source:Korean Times