Have North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his regime changed? Or is it just part of clever tricks to polish his image and earn sanctions relief?
This might be one common question in everyone’s minds after witnessing the historic inter-Korean summit last Friday between President Moon Jae-in and Kim.
The North’s recalcitrant leader swept many South Koreans off their feet by placing his feet on capitalist soil and maintaining a phlegmatic and friendly attitude throughout the first summit in over a decade.
For now, Kim’s attempt to rebuild his image as the leader of a normal state is a success.
According to a phone survey of 1,023 adults by local broadcaster MBC following the summit, a majority of South Koreans responded that Kim’s words and behavior shown during the talks were “credible.”
Among the total respondents, 17.1 percent answered “very credible,” while 60.5 percent replied “credible.” Among those in between 30s and 50s, over 80 percent responded positively.
However, most experts say Kim’s kind and friendly attitude does not indicate willingness to give up his missile and nuclear weapons programs and turn the totalitarian regime into a normal state.
They see Kim’s charm offensive as an attempt to polish his image to the international community and pressure U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of their upcoming summit slated for early June.
Simply speaking, the North is reacting to Trump’s “maximum pressure” and is desperate for economic relief.
Against this backdrop, the experts stressed that Seoul and Washington need to take a “cool-headed” approach and should not let their guard down until the North shows a better indication of sincerity by showing palpable progress over time.
When asked whether the inter-Korean summit indicates Kim Jong-un is changing, Sean King, a New York-based East Asia specialist and senior vice president of Park Strategies, said, “Not in terms of substance but yes in terms of style.”
He added, “Kim came off more relaxed and friendlier than one might expect.?The friendliness is but a show, however.”
Cool-headed approach needed
Liang Tuang Nah, a Singapore-based specialist on nuclear weapons politics and North Korean affairs, agreed with King, recalling the old adage that “a leopard never changes its spots.”
“There are many dovish analysts who would like to believe Kim has had an epiphany and has decided to ‘get with the program’ aligning North Korea with decent mainstream international state citizenship,” he said.
“However, given the Kim regime’s reversion to rogue behavior after the previous two summits, it’s reasonable to adopt a stance of ‘I’ll believe it when I see it.'”
The analysts pointed out if Kim wants to show his regime is seriously pursuing changes, there are a couple actions he must take _ destroying his nuclear arsenal, moving the North’s artillery away from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and allowing North Koreans free travel.
“When Kim surrenders his nuclear arms program and removes the artillery targeting Seoul, then credit should be given to him,” said Nah, a research fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic of the RSIS at Nanyang Technological University.
“Until then, a prognosis of lasting change in Kim regime thinking or mind set is premature.”
Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, concurred.
“There was absolutely no indication the Kim regime is changing,” she said.
“If the Kim regime is serious about changing North Korea, the real signs would be people traveling from one city to another freely, people not being punished for listening to K-pop, and people actually owning property in their names.”
Hopeful signs from the North
However, some experts say although a cautious approach is needed, the international community should not underestimate meaningful steps taken by the isolated country.
Lee Geun, professor of international relations at Seoul National University and the university’s vice president for international affairs, struck a positive note.
“Kim Jong-un I think has proven himself to be a realist, a leader who can make a rational decision on nuclear issues if hostility toward his country is removed. Trump is also a realist. Both Kim and Trump are realists, I believe, who can perhaps strike a different tenet from previous leaders who were bound by ideology and history,” Lee said.
He also added the April 27 summit’s Panmunjeom declaration has stated the North Korean nuclear program is a matter between the North and United States, and it is a matter of deterrence, and once the need for deterrence is removed, the North will have no need for the nuclear program.
Katharine Moon, a professor of political science and the Wasserman Chair of Asian Studies at Wellesley College, stressed the significance of the summit being held in the southern half of the Korean Peninsula.
“It is no small feat that Kim Jong-un walked over to the South Korean side,”?said Moon, also a senior search fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“Past summits took place in North Korea, and this is completely different because Kim placed his feet on capitalist soil and enemy territory.”
William Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, said there are hopeful signs from Kim and his regime ― signs of economic reform and allowing himself to be seen as a guest.
Focusing on Kim’s words at recent central committee meetings, he said, “Kim is seemingly moving away from the Byongjin Line and concentrating on economic development. This is something I hope Trump can pursue.”
The Byongjin line is the North’s policy of pursuing simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and bolstering the economy. Since he took power, Kim vowed to strengthen the policy with dual goals.
Brown also said, “I was pleasantly surprised to the degree that Kim allowed himself to be seen as the guest, not the host. This is much better than the two previous summits in Pyongyang.”
