Poll: Nearly half of voters say Trump exoneration is likely in 2018

Nearly half of voters think it’s at least somewhat likely President Donald Trump will be exonerated of wrongdoing by the special counsel this year, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

A 48 percent plurality of voters say it’s either very or somewhat likely Trump will be cleared in 2018, the poll shows, compared with 37 percent who say it’s not too likely or not at all likely Trump is cleared. And fewer than a third think Trump is likely to leave office in the coming year, despite calls from some Democrats for his impeachment.

 But the first survey of 2018 isn’t all good news for the administration: Pluralities of voters expect Democrats, who have a significant lead on the congressional generic ballot, to win control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections.

Voters’ predictions for Trump in 2018 are divided sharply along partisan lines, the polls show.

“Democrats and Republicans have drastically different views on whether Trump will be cleared of wrongdoing in the Russia probe led by special counsel Robert Mueller,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “Three in four Republicans, 74 percent, say it’s likely Trump will be cleared of wrongdoing in the Russia probe this year. But only 32 percent of Democrats say the same.”

Voters are more evenly split on whether Mueller’s investigation will ensnare a member of Trump’s family. Just over four in 10, 41 percent, say it’s at least somewhat likely a member of Trump’s family will be indicted on criminal charges in the next year, compared with 46 percent who say that is unlikely.

Only 32 percent say Trump is very or somewhat likely to leave office in 2018 — including, in perhaps some wishful thinking, 51 percent of Democrats. But a 56 percent majority think it’s not too likely or not at all likely.

While most voters are fairly confident Trump’s presidency will survive 2018, they see possible Democratic gains in this year’s midterms. Fully 45 percent of voters think it’s at least somewhat possible Democrats win back the House, while only 38 percent say that’s not too likely or not at all likely. (The numbers are virtually identical for whether Democrats will win back the Senate, despite the very different political map.)

Democrats have an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, the poll shows, 44 percent to 36 percent. Twenty percent of voters are undecided.

The poll was conducted January 4-5, surveying 1,988 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.

More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents — Toplines: http://politi.co/2mah8US | Crosstabs: http://politi.co/2qMS63M

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ource:politico.com