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Eyes on Kim Jong-un’s New Year message by Jun Ji-hye

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Government officials and experts here are paying keen attention to what message North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will deliver during his New Year address.

Kim Jong-Un

How the situation will develop around the Korean Peninsula in 2018 could depend on the contents of his address, because a year’s tasks announced in the leader’s New Year message in the North are usually considered absolute directions that should be carried out without fail.

During his New Year message in 2017, Kim said preparations for launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) had reached their final stages.

Later that year, the North actually launched ICBMs three times, including the latest one called Hwasong-15 in November.

After firing the Hwasong-15, which flew 960 kilometers in 53 minutes and reached a maximum altitude of 4,475 kilometers, Pyongyang claimed it was a new, more powerful ICBM capable of carrying a “super-large heavy warhead” and striking any part of the U.S. mainland.

This has significantly raised military tension around the peninsula with relations between Washington and Pyongyang plunging to their lowest ebb.

Shin Bum-cheol, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said the complex situation would continue in 2018 as Kim is expected to escalate his calls for the United States to recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear power.

“Kim may seek to launch a peace offensive toward the United States, but a precondition would be Washington’s recognition of Pyongyang as a nuclear power,” Shin said during his TV appearance.

“On the other hand, South Korea and the United States as well as the international community are calling on the North to be denuclearized. So, the complicated situation is expected to continue developing.”

Other experts said the government also needs to prepare for the North’s possible two-faced attitude in which it carries out military provocations while taking a peace offensive for talks.

“This would be aimed at making its peace offensive work better,” said Jung Young-tae, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Jung noted the level of provocations could be stronger than those conducted in 2017.

While Kim engaged in a war of words with U.S. President Donald Trump who threatened to unleash “fire and fury” and “totally destroy” Pyongyang, the Kim regime responded with various threats, including that it could detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.

Besides possible threats toward the international community, Kim, in his New Year address, is also expected to ask the North Korean people to remain loyal to the regime, emphasizing it has perfected its nuclear arsenal.

Experts said the young leader would add a strong warning to those who are dissatisfied with the regime, given the number of defections of North Korean people across the Demilitarized Zone into South Korea appears to have increased significantly in 2017. The military’s tally shows 15 North Korean people, including four soldiers, have fled to the South, compared with five including one soldier in 2016.

A recent case that received the most attention was the Nov. 13 defection, during which time a North Korean soldier fled to the South through the Joint Security Area at the truce village of Panmunjeom. The soldier suffered multiple gunshot wounds while crossing the Military Demarcation Line.

Experts added Kim is also expected to stress he cares about the people’s livelihood amid worsening economic difficulties following harsher sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council against the North’s repeated provocations.

Source:koreatimes.co.kr