More than one month has passed since the historic Singapore summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
The two leaders signed a landmark agreement on complete denuclearization of North Korea but so far little progress has been made.
One month is too short a period to see meaningful progress but Pyongyang’s lukewarm attitude has raised questions about Kim’s seriousness about denuclearization.
U.S. Secretary Mike Pompeo’s visit to Pyongyang in early July indicated the North’s subtle change of attitude. Unlike previous visits, Kim did not treat Pompeo to a discussion of the details regarding denuclearization agreed upon at the June 12 summit.
Analysts said there are two key reasons why Pyongyang remains cold and unenthusiastic about follow-up talks for prompt denuclearization _ internal opposition and buying time.
First, Kim might be facing a strong backlash from the North Korean elite about complete dismantlement of its nuclear weapons and missile programs. They may press Kim to keep part of the nuclear arsenal or at least to delay the denuclearization process.
“Some of Kim’s advisers may be advocating slowing the process,” Josephn DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, told The Korea Times.
The North Korean foreign ministry’s condemnation of the U.S. negotiating attitude is a manifestation of the hardliners in Pyongyang.
Right after Pompeo left Pyongyang in early July, the foreign ministry released a critical statement that labeled U.S. officials’ stance as?”regrettable” and criticized their emphasis on nuclear weapons.
DeTrani thinks that the hardliners are trying to convince Kim not to give up the regime’s nuclear weapons, in return for security assurances, economic development aid and a path to normal relations with the U.S.
“Obviously, Kim is working with people in his country who do not agree that they have to give away their nuclear weapons they have spent billions of dollars to build over decades,” he said.
However, the career U.S. diplomat said that if the North tries to play a trick again, it would be a mistake.
Kim should remember that if ongoing talks fail, it will deal a fatal blow to President Trump, which will, in turn, create even harsher sanctions against his regime.
“It’s time for North Korea to move smartly on these agreements. Failure to do so will fuel those who advocate for returning to a maximum pressure policy toward North Korea,” he said.
Pyongyang’s stalling tactic
Secondly, the North’s ambiguous attitude can be seen as a “stalling tactic” aimed at Trump’s denuclearization attempt losing momentum, a typical strategy Pyongyang has employed before.
In the past, every deal with North Korea fell by the wayside as involved parties’ solid commitments and their alliances weakened as a result of Pyongyang delaying key processes essential to ensure its denuclearization _ declaration of nuclear sites and verification agreement.
“Hopefully, they will result in a North Korean decision to provide a nuclear and missile declaration to the U.S. and commit to a verification agreement that will permit nuclear monitors to enter the North soon for implementation of the agreements,” said DeTrani.
Following the Singapore summit, Washington has sought to craft a detailed timeline and framework in the follow-up talks but Pyongyang has been reluctant to put a timetable for its denuclearization process and has delayed declaration of its sites.
Unfortunately, it seems that Pyongyang’s strategy is working again.
At a meeting with reporters in Russia, Tuesday, Trump said that there is no hurry to denuclearize the North, a shift from his earlier stance calling for speedy denuclearization.
“We have no time limit. We have no speed limit,” he said.
Experts are voicing concerns about Trump’s leniency.
“Trump still apparently?believes?in Kim Jong-un which makes me worry we’ll concede even more to Kim than we already have just to keep the talks alive,” said Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies.
The North’s recent no-show at a meeting with the U.S. to discuss the repatriation of soldiers’ remains from the Korean War was another example of the North trying to buy time to get the best deal.
“Kim wants sanctions lifted and security guarantees from the U.S. while giving up as little of its nuclear and missile programs as possible,” said Liang Tuang Nah, a research fellow of the Military Studies Program at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
He thinks that Kim is under growing pressure since North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs are the only commodities that the U.S. is interested in.
“Kim has to bargain for the best deal possible while ensuring that China continues to back his regime despite shifting global geo-political currents,” he said.
